The importance of current megatrends and trends in the opinion of X and Z generations

Contemporary changes in the world can be described by looking for similarities in phenomena occurring in diﬀ erent places. Currently, such megatrends include, among others: Demographic Shifts, Multipolarization of the World, Symbiocene, Bioera, and Mirror World. They are strongly related to technological progress, digitalization, and changes in societies. The aim of this article is to answer the question of whether the development trends are perceived as equally important by representatives of generations X and Z. Their attitude will be related to the willingness to accept the anticipated and already occurring changes. The research was conducted in 2023 on a sample of 500 people from generations X and Z. It was found that regardless of their generation, the respondents considered all megatrends current and important. They rated the importance of the Mirror World megatrend as the lowest, which means they are skeptical about the rapid domination of relationships by those taking place mainly on the Internet. The trends perceived as important included Mental Well-Being, Loneliness, Depopulation, and Roboticized Life, while the following were considered less important: Deglobalization, Medicine Resistance, Nation-State Collapse, and Identity Nomads. By comparing the assessments of trends by the representatives of the X and Z generations, it was 1 Corresponding Author.

found that the importance of each of the examined trends was assessed higher by younger people from Generation Z.For the most current trends, the diff erences in the assessments are statistically signifi cant.

Introduction
A megatrend is a concept relating to crucial development trends.According to Kożuch et al. (2023), this term was fi rst used in the book by J. Naisbitt and P. Aburdene entitled Megatrends 2000: Ten New Directions for the 1990s.According to the authors, a megatrend is: "signifi cant and lasting economic, social, political and technological changes that take shape slowly, but when they occur, for some time they infl uence all areas of life and, consequently, the future shape of this world" (Naisbitt and Aburdene, 1990).
Megatrends are essential (with a large area of impact) and lasting forces that infl uence and change the economy, society, and culture.These are global forces that aff ect all people.They are interconnected and infl uence each other (EY, 2015).Recognizing these forces and areas that change, allows us to better understand the challenges and opportunities that countries and businesses face worldwide (Bojar and Kłosowski, 2015).
A megatrend is similarly defi ned by Muszyński (2001): "economic, social, political and cultural phenomena arising in the process of development of human civilization, having various conditions, aff ecting humanity as permanent tendencies."According to Prandecki (2012), phenomena classifi ed as megatrends should have a high chance of implementation.However, the possibility of their correction as a result of other forces should be taken into account.The supra-local scope of megatrends, long duration, and signifi cant impact on the socio-economic environment is usually emphasized (Przybylski, 2019).

Currently important megatrends and trendsliterature review
There are many examples of megatrends in the literature.Table 1 shows the current sets indicated by selected authors.It is worth noting that the individual proposals contain many common elements.These include population growth, urbanization, ageing of society, resource depletion, the rapid development of technology, digitization, and sustainable development.
Globalization processes resulted mainly from global trends, such as increasing similarity of countries in terms of consumer demand, increased liquidity on international capital markets, decreasing customs barriers, technological improvements, innovations, and the emergence of new competitors (Stonehouse, Hamill, Campbell, Purdie, 2001).A common area is also pursuing sustainable development and saving non-renewable resources.
Identifi ed megatrends often result from aggregating similar changes of smaller scope and signifi cance.Such phenomena are considered trends.According to Natalia Hatalska, who prepared the Trend Map at the Infuture Institute in 2023, it is worth paying attention to the Mirror World megatrend related to the ongoing digitization of life (Wiązowska, 2023).It enters into the most signifi cant number of relationships with other megatrends and digitization is changing the world in social, political, and economic aspects.Many trends seem to be mutually exclusive, which confi rms the complexity of the world, which is a world of "and-and," not an "or-or" world (Naisbitt, 1997).It is worth noting that, considering our ex- pectations, we can identify positive and negative trends in relation to these expectations (Przybylski, 2019).The Trend Map prepared at the Infuture Institute in 2023, which we used in our research, contains fi ve megatrends that present an assessment of the environment, society, technology, regulatory, and economic changes.These are: 1. Mirror World (intensive and constant transfer of various activities at all possible levels to the digital world).
2. Multipolar World (related to the loss of social cohesion, deglobalization, and an increasing number of confl icts).
3. Bioage (in which humans change nature and living organisms in such a way that they meet their needs, related to the intensive development of genetic engineering, tissue engineering, nanotechnology, biotechnology, etc.).
4. Symbiocene (where humans again become an equivalent part of the ecosystem).
The map also shows time perspectives relating to the highlighted trends (Table 2).These are the perspectives: -new normal (currently leading trends), -reactive zone (short-term perspective, the trend needs 1 > 5 years to become a leading trend), -innovation zone (medium-term perspective, the trend needs 5 > 20 years to become a leading trend).
Setting time frames for individual phenomena is necessary so that entities operating in the market can take appropriate actions.According to the author of the Trend Map, the current perspective, i.e., the new normal zone, allows us to defi ne areas that must be addressed most urgently.If it turns out that a company does not respond in any way to trends in the new normal zone, it is lagging behind the needs of the market or the competition's off er.When it comes to the reactive zone, i.e., a 1-5 year perspective, knowledge of trends from this perspective helps develop the organization's strategy because it is assumed to have a view of several years (Wiązowska, 2023).
On the Trend Map 2023, 50 trends were assigned to individual megatrends (Table 2).What is new, is showing the interdependence between megatrends and trends.Some trends are repeated within individual megatrends, e.g., Mental Well-Being appears in four out of the fi ve megatrends mentioned.
As we mentioned earlier, in addition to megatrends, there are also trends.These are more detailed characteristics of areas and directions of change than megatrends.They are characterized by relatively high stability and describe changes in phenomena in a given direction (Wojtkiewicz, 2016).However, trends do not have as much power and infl uence as megatrends.Compared to a megatrend, a trend is easier to recognize, develops quickly, and has a relatively limited im- pact area.It causes evolutionary changes, not revolutionary ones, like a megatrend (Pieriegud, 2015).
In economic terms, a trend can be defi ned as systematic changes in the level of a given phenomenon, most often caused by the development of productive forces, for example, as a result of technical and scientifi c progress (Rutkowska, 2018).A trend is also called a search and compensatory movement that appears automatically in the economy and unnoticeably adjusts values to the system of new requirements (Zmyślony, Niezgoda, 2003).The importance of trends can be analyzed from a micro-and macroeconomic perspective, including examining their impact and manifestations in consumer behavior on the market (Gibbs, 1990;Mróz, 2013;Alagierska, 2018;Tkaczyk, 2012), the functioning of enterprises and institutions and entire economies (Przybylski, 2019).An example may be consumers following the trend of consumerism but also the emergence of counter-trends, e.g., sustainable consumption.
The characteristics of the trend are (Szulc, 2018): -the relative stability in the short term, in the long term volatility appears; -co-occurrence, i.e., mutual overlap of trends; -divergence -the formation of countertrends.Nowadays, trends impact marketing activities and the management of market-oriented enterprises.Identifying trends is especially important when a company operates in sectors where rapid technological changes are observed and product innovations occur frequently.
Introducing solutions by companies that consider current trends (new normal, reactive zone) may enable them to take a leading position in a given area in the future.Trends included in the innovation zone are less critical for the current functioning of the organization.However, considering phenomena expected in the future is important from a strategic perspective, giving an impulse to undertake development activities.
The inspiration and basis for conducting this research was the Trend Map 2023 published by the Infuture Institute.The co-author of the map, N. Hatalska, was included by the Financial Times in the New Europe 100 list, appreciating her skills in forecasting trends (2017).As part of this research, it was decided to check whether the identifi ed megatrends and trends are equally important for generations X and Z representatives: people with experience and those just starting their professional lives.Generation Z calls itself the post-millennial generation, the prosperity generation.People from this group diff er in many ways from people from Generation X.At the same time, people from these groups cooperate in various areas, including professional work, service relationships, etc., which sometimes becomes a cause of confl icts resulting from diff erent perceptions of the importance of phenomena (Talarek, 2020;Oprzędek, 2023).The characteristics of people from generations X and Z are summarized in Table 3.

Aim and methods
The aim of the article is to answer the question of whether there are diff erences in the perception of the importance of the identifi ed megatrends (defi nitions were presented to the study participants) by representatives of the young (Z) and mature (X) generations.In the research, respondents were also asked to express their opinion on the potential importance of selected phenomena currently described as trends.Trends were considered from the following three perspectives: the current status, perspectives for 5-10 years, and perspectives for over 10 years.
The megatrends and trends used in the study were adopted according to the Trend Map 2023.In the survey, all megatrends and twelve trends were selected to assess their validity and development potential empirically.These were the trends that are repeated in the most signifi cant number of megatrends, i.e., 1) Mental Well-Being, 2) Loneliness, 3) Digital Inequalities, 4) Deglobalization, 5) Nation-State Collapse, 6) Disillusionment with Democracy, 7) Depopulation, 8) Roboticized Life, 9) Medicine Resistance, 10) Identity Nomads, 11) Metaverse Economy, and 12) Biodigital Systems.
In this research, the following research hypothesis was formulated: "The assessment of the importance of megatrends depends on the respondent's generation." The research was carried out in March 2023, using the survey method, on a sample of 500 respondents selected using the snowball method.IBM SPSS Statistics 29 was used to analyze the acquired data.To determine the signifi cance of the relationship between the age of respondents and the assessment of selected trends, the Chi 2 test of independence was used.
The examined sample consisted of people from generations X and Z, i.e., born in 1965-1980 and 1997-2012, respectively.There were 305 people in Generation X, and 195 in Generation Z.The youngest research participant was 17 years old, and the oldest was 58.The average age of the respondents was 38 years old.The median age was 46 years.
The study involved 314 women (62.8%) and 186 men (37.2%).They indicated both the city (54.4% of respondents) and the countryside (45.6% of respondents) as their place of residence.The largest share in the analyzed sample were people still studying/learning (34.2%), the next group were people with secondary education (25.4%), higher education and postgraduate education (22.2%).Respondents with vocational education were exclusively from Generation X; they accounted for 18.2% of the sample.

Research results
In the fi rst stage of the study, respondents from Generation X and Generation Z were asked to assess the importance of individual megatrends: Mirror World, Multipolar World, Bioage, Symbiocene, and Demographic Shifts (Table 4).It was evaluated whether there are diff erences in the assessment of their importance depending on the respondents' generation.
The weighted average ratings calculated for individual current megatrends indicate that younger people (Generation Z) consider most megatrends important; for three of the fi ve phenomena examined, the rating is 4 and higher, and only Mirror World was rated moderately important (score 3.4).However, representatives of Generation X rated the importance of all analyzed phenomena lower than Generation Z.They considered three megatrends to be of medium importance (scores 2.9-3.4) and one (Demographic Shifts) as important.The ratings for the Multipolar World megatrend were the closest and at an average level (3.6 and 3.8).The diff erences between the weighted average ratings for individual megatrends ranged from 0.2 to 0.7.
The Chi-square test of independence was used to determine whether respondents from Generation X and Z perceive the importance of individual megatrends equally.For the megatrends Bioage, Mirror World, Symbiocene and Multipolar World, it was found that there is a statistically signifi cant relationship between membership in a generation and the assessment of the importance of the megatrend (p-value is less than 0.05).Representatives of Generation Z considered them signifi cantly more important than those of Generation X.Only when assessing the importance of the Demographic shifts megatrend respondents' opinions did not diff er signifi cantly depending on the generation.The obtained results confi rm that the importance and signifi cance of individual phenomena are assessed diff erently by representatives of the surveyed generations.
In the next research stage, respondents were asked to assess whether they considered the phenomena indicated as trends signifi cant.The study asked about the 12 most frequently repeated trends: three from the new normal zone, seven from the reactive zone and two from the innovation zone.

New normal perspective
Respondents were asked whether they consider new normal zone trends such as Mental Well-Being, Loneliness and Digital Inequalities important.In the case of the Mental Well-Being trend, 97% of all respondents admitted that they consider it an important phenomenon, including 99% of Generation Z and 96% of Generation X (Figure 1).Another trend studied was Loneliness.As many as 89.4% of all people participating in the study indicated it to be an important phenomenon (Figure 2).In the case of the Loneliness trend, 96% of Generation Z indicated that it was an important phenomenon, compared to 85% of Generation X respondents.The assessment of the importance of this trend was signifi cantly diff erent depending on the generation (chi 2 emp.= 14.97, p-value < 0.001, df = 1, N = 500) (see Table 6).
The Digital Inequalities trend received, both in the opinion of people from Generation Z and Generation X, a signifi cantly lower number of "yes" responses than previously analyzed (Figure 3).Only 69% of respondents from Generation Z and 55% of people from Generation X believed that this is currently an important phenomenon.At the same time, the assessment of this trend was signifi cantly diff erent between generations (chi 2 emp.= 9.68, p-value = 0.002, df = 1, N = 500) (see Table 6).

Reactive zone perspective
Participants were also asked about the importance of trends in the reactive zone as part of the research.These were seven trends: Depopulation, Deglobalization, Nation-State Collapse, Medicine Resistance, Roboticized Life, and Identity Nomads.These social and political phenomena are expected to have a growing impact on the functioning of economies.Table 5 shows the distribution of responses regarding trends that may be important in 5-10 years.Two of the three political trends, i.e., Deglobalization and Nation-State Collapse, have little chance of becoming leading in the opinion of people from both Generation X and Generation Z.The answer confi rming that Nation-State Collapse will be a very signifi cant phenomenon in the medium term was given by 28.2% of representatives of Generation X and 23.6% of Generation Z. Respondents from Generation Z (42%) expressed more positive indications for the Deglobalization trend than Generation X (39.7%).The Disillusionment with Democracy trend received similar average ratings (60% and 55.4%).The increasing importance of the mentioned trends is observed in Poland and other European countries, constituting elements of the multipolar world megatrend.
The next analyzed trend was Depopulation from the demographic shifts area.This trend is considered negative and occurs mainly in European countries.The assessment of the change in the signifi cance of the Depopulation trend in the com- ing years was similar in the eyes of both the younger and older generations.The number of positive indications for both groups was 50-60%.Roboticized Life as a technological and social trend was considered to have potential for development by 63% of respondents of Generation Z and 55% of Generation X.This result seems to be relatively low.
A signifi cant trend in the period of the so-called post-pandemic phenomenon has become Medicine Resistance.49% of Generation Z and 48% of Generation X indicated this trend is important.The fact that this is an important issue can be proven by implementing the National Antibiotic Protection Program, a program dedicated to the fi ght against medicine resistance.
For six trends from the reactive zone, it was found that their perception does not diff er signifi cantly between generations (see Table 6).
To determine whether the "generation" variable is statistically signifi cantly related to the variables assessing the development opportunities of the examined trends, Chi-square tests of independence were performed to evaluate each of the discussed trends (Table 6).A discussion of the results is provided in the text in the individual trend paragraphs.It is worth emphasizing, however, that there is no constant trend in the diff erence in grades.Surveyed respondents from the X and Z generations perceive the possibility of becoming most important in the coming years (5-10 years) of trends such as Mental Well-Being, Loneliness, Digital Inequalities and Identity Nomads diff erently.They also diff er in their assessment of trends that may become leading in the longer perspective (up to 20 years), which are Metaverse Economy and Biodigital Systems.In the case of other 7 out of 12 trends, no signifi cant diff erences in assessment were observed.

Innovation zone perspective
Specifi c trends belonging to the innovation zone are not currently widespread and highly complex, and it takes time to be adequately understood by everyone.These include, for example, Biodigital Systems and Metaverse Economy.Hence, they have been classifi ed as trends whose importance will increase in the long run.As part of the study, respondents were asked to indicate the chances that the trends mentioned will become trends of great importance in the long term.
The respondents perceived both trends selected from the innovation zone signifi cantly diff erently (Table 6).Representatives of Generation Z mostly gave positive answers about development opportunities in the area of Biodigital Systems and the area of Metaverse Economy.They assessed that in the long term, Metaverse Economy has a chance to become a leading trend (56%), as did Biodigital Systems (76%).Representatives of the X generation perceive the opportunities for developing Biodigital Systems as signifi cantly lower but positively (approx.63%).In comparison, they appreciate the Metaverse Economy to a lesser extent (38% of responses to yes) (Figure 4).

Discussion
As stated in our research, the importance of individual trends and megatrends is perceived diff erently by generations X and Z representatives.However, it should be noted that some of the assessed trends were considered important, regardless of the respondents' affi liation with a specifi c generation.This is due to the high intensity of the phenomenon described by the trend, which makes it more noticeable and aware by respondents.For example, assessing the signifi cance of the Demographic Shifts megatrend confi rms that regardless of age, respondents notice changes in the social, legal, and economic environment related to the activity of older people, which is referred to as the "silver tsunami."These changes concern health care, fi nances, and the professional activity of older adults.The Demographic Shifts megatrend also includes such essential trends as Loneliness and Mental Well-Being, as well as the trend regarding the importance of migration.
Mental well-being is a feeling resulting from fulfi llment and satisfaction with our lives and a low stress level.It is described in the following six dimensions: self-acceptance, personal development, purpose in life, control over the environment, autonomy, and positive relationships with others (Niśkiewicz, 2016).The factors that strengthen the importance of the Mental Well-Being trend are the observed multiplication of crises.The global health crisis (the COVID-19 pandemic) and economic and political crises (wars, terrorism) overlap.These phenomena cause a weakened sense of security and anxiety, which leads to an increased number of cases of depression and contributes, for example, to an increase in the number of suicides.According to research results published in various studies, mental well-being is essential for young people.It is one of the most important aspects considered when planning private and professional life.In business reality, prevention supporting the good mental health of young employees will be critical (Cpl Poland, 2022).
According to Loneliness trend.This trend means not only the phenomenon of building social relationships via the Internet but also, for example, touching, smelling, and tasting within the Internet of the senses.Experts predict that by 2030, the internet of senses will become more widespread thanks to technologies such as artifi cial intelligence (AI), virtual reality (VR), and augmented reality (AR) (Ericsson, n.d.).Digitization is already taking place at the expense of social life (Nowak, 2023).The widespread of various digital channels for access to information and events leads to limited live meetings and natural interactions with other people.
The Digital Inequalities trend is also a current phenomenon.Such inequalities result from diff erences in access to the Internet, level of digital skills, and diff erent motivations to use the Internet.In the long run, this leads to diversifi cation of life opportunities (from education through work to consumption), even more so as the importance of digital services in social and economic life grows.The relatively low assessment of the importance of the Digital Inequalities trend in our research results from the fact that many older respondents grew up during the intensive development of technology.They use it effi ciently (electronics, social media) and are still willing to learn new things, so digital solutions do not constitute a signifi cant barrier for them.However, almost 55% of respondents from this age group indicate the importance of this phenomenon, observing that not everyone keeps up with changes in the IT area (mobile applications, artifi cial intelligence).They notice many people who cannot cope with new digital solutions.Young representatives of Generation Z see that their parents' generation does not keep up with "novelties" at the same pace as they do, which is why almost 69% of the responses say this trend is essential.
Relatively low assessment of the Roboticized Life trend by respondents from both generations.This result seems relatively low compared to the tendency observed in society to automate processes and use robots in all areas of life (Kruczkowska, 2017).Perhaps automation and robotization are not noticeable to many because they are largely implemented in operational processes in enterprises.
It is worth noting that there are no diff erences between representatives of the surveyed generations in the assessment of trends in the sphere reactive zone.It means that changes in the importance of trends in several years perspective are assessed similarly.This may be because knowledge and understanding of future phenomena come from analyses of the directions of development in the world that are equally available to everyone.Signifi cantly diff erent opinions among respondents from diff erent generations were obtained only for the Identity Nomads trend.In the opinion of Generation Z, it has a greater chance of becoming a leader (61%) than in the opinion of Generation X (42%).The diff erences in assessment are probably related to the fact that the phenomenon of identity fl uidity is more known and accepted in Generation Z, known for its far-reaching individualism and independence (Hatalska, 2016).
It should be noted that the assessment of the importance of trends observed in this research is not fully consistent with the results obtained by other authors.For example, aspects of robotization and automation seem to be underestimated.It should also be remembered that the assessment of changes in the world around us also results from the diff erence between generations in relying more on the information provided rather than on their own observations (Hatalska, 2016).

Conclusions
1. Megatrends are phenomena that aff ect countries and entire economies.They infl uence societies by changing the political, demographic, social, religious, educational, environmental, and technical environment.Their identifi cation allows us to recognize and adapt to future changes or limit their impact.
2. The currently observed changes in economic conditions and the rapid development of technology are important premises for researching current and future trends.In this context, building and analyzing a trend map is essential for obtaining knowledge about the future.Information obtained based on that map can help mitigate undesirable trends in the case of negative trends or implement longterm development plans in the case of positive trends.
3. The results of empirical research on assessing the importance of current megatrends (Demographic Shifts, Multipolar World, Symbiocene, Bioage and Mirror World) confi rm that the described megatrends were selected accurately.Most respondents (60-70%) believed these are important phenomena.The exception was the megatrend Mirror World, whose importance ratings were medium and low.
4. It was found that there is a signifi cant diff erence in the perception of the importance of megatrends by people belonging to diff erent generations.Younger people assigned higher importance to each megatrend; the diff erences were statistically signifi cant.The exception was the Demographic Shifts megatrend, which was considered highly important by representatives of both generations surveyed.This may be because changes related to this phenomenon can already be directly observed in the environment, especially the ageing of societies and migrations.
5. Trends in the environment were assessed diff erently by respondents depending on the generation.However, there are no clear relationships for all the examined trends.From the current -new normal -perspective, both Mental Well-Being, Loneliness and Digital Inequalities were considered important, with the Digital Inequalities trend having a relatively low importance rating.The ratings diff ered signifi cantly depending on the generation.
6.The future importance of trends established for a dozen or more years was assessed as lower than the current ones.On average, 40 to 60% of respondents considered them important.The exceptions were the Nation-State Collapse and Deglobalization trends, whose chances of becoming signifi cant were assessed by respondents as low -at approximately 20-40%.Similarly, the opportunities for developing the Metaverse Economy trend were considered low.No signifi cant differences were found in assessing trends from a medium-term perspective.Perhaps the respondents do not have enough experience in this fi eld. 7. To summarize the entire study, Generation X representatives rated the chances of achieving high importance for each megatrend and trends lower.In most cases, the diff erences in assessment were statistically signifi cant.

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.Distribution of responses regarding the importance of the Mental Well-Being trend (N = 500) Source: authors' research.

Figure 2 .
Figure 2. Distribution of responses regarding the importance of the Loneliness trend (N = 500) Source: authors' research.

Figure 3 .
Figure 3. Distribution of responses regarding the importance of the Digital Inequalities trend (N = 500) Source: authors' research.

Figure 4 .
Figure 4. Distribution of answers regarding development opportunities of selected trends in the long term (5-20) years -Metaverse Economy and Biodigital Systems Source: authors' research.

Table 1 .
Megatrends examples proposed by various authors Source: authors' elaboration.

Table 2 .
Megatrends and trends according to Trend Map 2023

Table 3 .
Characteristics of Generation X and Generation Z has been in harmony with digital technologies since birth.Tablets, smartphones, screens, and interactive services are natural companions in their everyday lives.All the mentioned "digital riches" are at the user's fi ngertips.This generation is entering the labor market, which is quite mysterious; we don't know much about it yet.Experts' diagnoses indicate that these are people of above-average talent, resourcefulness and intelligence, with high ecological awareness.However, a characteristic feature of this generation is a lack of patience, possibly due to immediacy eff ects on desire.

Table 5 .
Distribution of answers regarding the importance of trends in the next 5-10 years Note: N = 500 Source: authors' research.

Table 6 .
Results of the Chi 2 test for the "generation" variable and assessment of the development chances of the selected trends Source: authors' research.